16/04/2009: 128.8 Stronger
pound, cheaper oil. No great changes in the week before the budget.
09/04/2009: 127.8 No
significant changes in the week before Easter.
03/04/2009: 128.1 Are things
getting better? The £ and the FTSE100 are both on the up and the oil
price has fallen back slightly. There was certainly some euphoria after
the G20; maybe that will change next week. Some say this is a sucker's
rally, but we don't listen to pessimists, do we?
27/03/2009: 126.9 The
FTSE100 ended the week higher, despite falling retail sales and rising
inflation - at least a rising consumer price index: the retail price
index, which includes housing costs, is now at zero. Oil continues to
rise, which can only be bad news for the UK in the face of a weak pound.
How will this week's G20 conference affect the numbers?
20/03/2009: 128.2 This week
it was confirmed that unemployment had broken the 2 million level and
vacancies were down. The euro strengthened while the dollar weakened.
Oil is beginning to creep up. After adjusting for the $/£ exchange rate,
oil is halfway back to the record high of July 2008. No wonder pump
prices are pushing towards £1 again.
13/03/2009: 129.4 Weakening
of the pound against the dollar and the euro, and a rise in the oil
price are offset by a recovery in the FTSE100, though the trend is down.
06/03/2009: 130.0 This
dramatic change is solely due to the cut in base rate from 1% to 0.5%.
Future versions of COBRA will need to consider weighting the factors so
that a single issue cannot bias the whole picture. "Quantitative Easing"
is the next weapon in the Bank's arsenal, but it may take some time
before we see the effects. Some say that this could lead to
hyper-inflation. Most agree that no-one knows what's happening.
27/02/2009: 111.0 Hardening
of the oil price offset a small improvement in the euro.
20/02/2009: 112.6 A very
small change in the index. A fall in the FTSE100 was offset by
improvements in foreign exchange, retail prices and inflation. These
last two are published monthly, so there may still be bad news to come.
The value of the coefficient is dominated by the two cuts in Base Rate.
What will they do in March?
13/02/2009: 112.7 Foreign
exchanges, vacancies and FTSE100 down; unemployment up. Oil price fell
to $38 (despite what I said last week) but not enough to offset the
other negative factors. Uncharted waters? Certainly no obvious trend. Is
it any wonder that bankers are sitting on their hands and not lending?
After HBOS, have they got any money left? Has the government?
06/02/2009: As expected, the
Bank cut Base Rate by 0.5% to 1% which had a strong "favourable"
influence on the index. Whether it is favourable or not, or even
effective, is open to debate. It's generally agreed that it's not the
cost of borrowing but the availability of credit that is the problem.
Who is going to save at these rates? There are signs that some investors
are looking to assets like gold or foreign currencies to protect what
money they have left.
The oil price seems to have stabilised around $41 and the euro, the
dollar and the Stock Market (FTSE100) all rose slightly. They had
clearly already taken the rate cut into account. The Halifax stated that
house prices had risen slightly. The House Price Index, published by the
Land Registry and used in calculating the COBRA co-efficient, shows a
slight fall.
30/1/2009: You could
be forgiven for thinking that things are getting better, despite this
week's news of industrial unrest! The change in the index is due to the
pound strengthening on the foreign exchanges and the FTSE100 closing
higher than a week ago. January's cut in interest rates is the
underlying positive influence on the result - though some would doubt
whether it's a good thing or a bad thing - or has no effect at all! See
Cobra Data
for individual changes.
23/1/2009: The index has fallen slightly,
though there have been significant changes in most of the components.
Sterling fell against the dollar and the euro, and the FTSE100 was 134
points lower on the week. As expected, quarterly unemployment went up
and vacancies went down. The oil price increased, but remains highly
volatile. On the positive side, retail sales improved and inflation fell
by a full percentage point.
16/1/2009: The FTSE 100 was slightly down at
the end of the week and sterling fell against both the euro and the
dollar, but this was more than offset by another fall in the oil price.
9/1/2009: Another fall in house prices was
more than offset by the cut in Base Rate to 1.5%, a small fall in the
oil price and an improvement in sterling's value against both the euro
and the dollar.
